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Riddle:
You're stranded in a rainforest, and you've eaten a poisonous mushroom. To save your life, you need an antidote excreted by a certain species of frog. Unfortunately, only the female frog produces the antidote. The male and female look identical, but the male frog has a distinctive croak. Derek Abbott shows how to use conditional probability to make sure you lick the right frog and get out alive. How do you get out alive?
Answer: If you chose to go to the clearing, you're right, but the hard part is correctly calculating your odds. There are two common incorrect ways of solving this problem. Wrong answer number one: Assuming there's a roughly equal number of males and females, the probability of any one frog being either sex is one in two, which is 0.5, or 50%. And since all frogs are independent of each other, the chance of any one of them being female should still be 50% each time you choose. This logic actually is correct for the tree stump, but not for the clearing. Wrong answer two: First, you saw two frogs in the clearing. Now you've learned that at least one of them is male, but what are the chances that both are? If the probability of each individual frog being male is 0.5, then multiplying the two together will give you 0.25, which is one in four, or 25%. So, you have a 75% chance of getting at least one female and receiving the antidote. So here's the right answer. Going for the clearing gives you a two in three chance of survival, or about 67%. If you're wondering how this could possibly be right, it's because of something called conditional probability. Let's see how it unfolds. When we first see the two frogs, there are several possible combinations of male and female. If we write out the full list, we have what mathematicians call the sample space, and as we can see, out of the four possible combinations, only one has two males. So why was the answer of 75% wrong? Because the croak gives us additional information. As soon as we know that one of the frogs is male, that tells us there can't be a pair of females, which means we can eliminate that possibility from the sample space, leaving us with three possible combinations. Of them, one still has two males, giving us our two in three, or 67% chance of getting a female. This is how conditional probability works. You start off with a large sample space that includes every possibility. But every additional piece of information allows you to eliminate possibilities, shrinking the sample space and increasing the probability of getting a particular combination. The point is that information affects probability. And conditional probability isn't just the stuff of abstract mathematical games. It pops up in the real world, as well. Computers and other devices use conditional probability to detect likely errors in the strings of 1's and 0's that all our data consists of. And in many of our own life decisions, we use information gained from past experience and our surroundings to narrow down our choices to the best options so that maybe next time, we can avoid eating that poisonous mushroom in the first place.
Riddle:
I like to be blue and have been since '63, but I could be anything if my circuit was fixed. I'm small yet infinitely bigger. I was grown but I'm made of metal. I am the last of my kind just like my beautiful idiot once was. Together we will travel, have traveled or are traveling. Tenses as seen, seeing, will see, are mysterious to me. Wibblies and wobblies, time correctly described by a Lord. What will I be, what have I been, or is it, what am I?
Riddle:
Lauren and Alice are talking long distance on the phone. Lauren is in an East-Coast US state which borders the Atlantic Ocean, and Alice is in a West-Coast state which borders the Pacific Ocean. Lauren asks Alice: "What time is it?" Alice replies and Lauren says: "That's really odd. It's the same time here!" How can this be?
Answer: Alice is in Eastern Oregon (in Mountain time) and Lauren is in Western Florida (in Central time). It is the night that daylight-savings time changes back to standard time any time after 1:00 and before 2:00 AM.
Riddle:
There are 4 borthers 3 of them want to buy a television which is 30 pounds. Each of them pay 10 pound each they give the money to the fourth brother and asked him to go into town and buy the television. When he got there the man said there was 5 pounds off so the fourth brother took the 5 pound and television and left. He decided to make some money out of this so he took 2 pounds and give the other 3 pounds to his brothers. So the 3 brothers only payed 9 pounds each. 3 times 9 is 27 were is the last pound?
Riddle:
Mr. Grumper grumbles about bad time-keeping trains like everybody else. On one particular morning he was justified, though. The train left on time for the one hour journey and it arrived 5 minutes late. However, Mr. Grumper's watch showed it to be 3 minutes early, so he adjusted his watch by putting it forward 3 minutes. His watch kept time during the day, and on the return journey in the evening the train started on time, according to his watch, and arrived on time, according to the station clock. If the train traveled 25 percent faster on the return journey than it did on the morning journey, was the station clock fast or slow, and by how much?
Answer: The station clock is 3 minutes fast. The morning journey took 65 minutes, and the evening journey therefore took 52 minutes, and the train arrived 57 minutes after it should have left, that is, 3 minutes early.
Riddle:
I have two coins, one is marked George I and one is marked George IV. One is genuine but one is a forgery. Which is the forgery?
Answer: George I. A coin would not be marked Goerge I because at the time it was produced it would not have been known that there was going to be a George II.
Riddle:
School starts at 8:30, they do math at that time, they do reading at 9:00, they do music at 9:30, they do P.E. at 10:00, then more math at 10:30, then they have tests at 11:00 then correcting them at 11:30 then Lunch at 12:00 and recess at 12:30, then they do reading at 1:00, then they do small group stations at 1:30 then they do another recess at 2:00 then they have a party at 2:30 and then they clean up after the party at 3:00, what time do they go home today?
Answer: 3:30 because each activity is 30 minutes so they clean up for 30 minutes then leave at 3:30!
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